Yesterday’s announcement of clean car actions raises potential for Kiwis having to reconsider allegiance to vehicles they love the most.

 BASICALLY, we don't like our 'greens' and consume too many meaty products. 

That’s the national new vehicle buying pattern in a nutshell.

Sports utilities, crossovers and, in particular, one tonne utilities. These are the vehicles we love the most; to the point where they cumulatively outsell conventional cars and the Ford Ranger has become the country’s best-selling model.

Great stuff. Just one wee catch. It’s always been common knowledge that, were New Zealand ever to get its act together and implement some kind of emissions regulation, then the vehicles Kiwi love most would get us into trouble.

CO2 emissions from new passenger and light vehicles have been declining. However, our national average is well above where the Government has now decided it needs to be; mainly because we’ve been making too many dirty decisions. 

Core to announcement yesterday of a Clean Air Standard is intention to reach a CO2 target of 102g/km by 2025.

Easy-peasy? The current NZ average for cars and SUVs is 161g; overall, the fleet is around 171g – an improvement on a year ago, if only by 3g. And today’s average is still below is still slightly below the target the European Union set for its territory in 2003.

So, yeah, the challenge is to achieve a reduction of almost 40 percent from the current new-vehicle average. Utes, which are particular grubs, and vans must hit 132g in the same timeframe.

There’s no time to waste. The Government intends to pass the law this year and enact the standard in 2022, with the first charges being levied on any who miss their annually reducing targets from 2023. 

It’s not as if we didn’t know this day was coming. Fact is, NZ is just catching up to a world trend, which in a way is going to be helpful.

Vehicle makers are already being compelled the same targets in much larger, more crucial markets; their reaction to that challenge means they are already making products that are in step with the NZ intention. We will get many of those vehicles.

The European Union mandate on makers selling in its territory to meet an even higher standard, a fleet-wide average of 95g/km, and Japan’s mandate for a 104g/km standard, are especially compelling. Vehicles tailored to meet or exceed those expectations will also come here.

The NZ model is not too different from the EU’s. Vehicle suppliers will have different targets to meet, and will only have to ensure that the average efficiency of the cars imported in any given year meets the standard. This means higher-emission vehicles can still be imported but will have to be offset by cleaner vehicles.

Failure to comply will be penalised, as in the EU, but not to anything like the same extreme. In the EU, fines can be large enough to bring a brand to its knees. Here a penalty will be applied from 2023 of $50 per gram of CO2 above the target for new vehicle imports or $25 per gram above the target for used vehicle imports - but it is applied across the fleet.

If you decided, today, to investigate which vehicles on sale at this very moment were already meeting that new cut-off … well, the shortlist would be very short indeed.

Forget conventional internal combustion-engined cars; even especially thrifty types struggle to be that clean.

You need to go hybrid, though even then it’s not a given. Toyota's Prius, Yaris, C-HR and Corolla petrol-electric models are all under the 105g/km. The Camry hybrid and the hot-selling RAV4 hybrid are on the wrong side of the fence.

The models that will make more of a difference are will be used by brands that can achieve them to lower their fleet averages are, of course, plug-in hybrid (PHEV) and fully electric vehicles.

This has been shown in the EU, where makers were generally starting from a base of 120g/km.

These are vehicles that, of course, many big players are now making in greater volumes. Ironically, some have been hard to secure for NZ because their makers are prioritising places where they have to represent electric fare or face fines – this is why VW Group product has been restricted, or completely held back, from NZ introduction. Europe’s biggest maker is focussing, out of necessity, on keeping those cars in EU markets. The NZ decision could well be a very useful tool for the brands’ NZ agent to now argue for prioritisation. 

In the here and now, the current hybrid and plug in hybrid fare that meets or improves on the standard comprise seven BMWs, two Hyundais, two Kias, a Range Rover, two Lexus models, four Mercedes, a MINI, a Mitsubishi, a Peugeot, two Porsches, six Toyotas and four Volvos.

In addition, 14 fully electric passenger models avail here, from Audi, BMW, Hyundai, Jaguar, Kia, Mercedes, MG, MINI, Nissan, Renault and Tesla. One or two examples of the Volkswagen e-Golf might also be unspoken for, though car is not out of production and supply has ended.

The probability of seeing more electrics, PHEVs and hybrids is high – being, then, it already was anyway because, well, you might recall the motoring world is going that way regardless of how much you love your V8s.

Of course, not all brands have the luxury of being about to take the electric path. Subaru and Suzuki are barely in the game, with just mild hybrid options. No ute here yet has any kind of battery-assisted drivetrain, though a hybrid Toyota Hilux is promised and Mitsubishi has hinted at a battery-assisted powertrain for Triton. Look at Isuzu: It makes a ute and a spin-off SUV. Both rely purely on a diesel engine whose emissions are well about the new mandate.

What habits might we have to change or even quit? A year ago I wrote a backgrounder for a national publication that aimed to give insight into the vehicles that might well become problematic were our country to ever consider the CO2 issue.

That piece pointed out how our huge move toward ute ownership has been detrimental to bringing emissions down. It pointed out, for instance, that a the start of 2020, the Ford Ranger, which at that point had dominated ute sales for five years (and would do the same last year), was both a relative saint and a sinner, in that one engine it ran - the 2.2-litre four-cylinder biturbo, emitted a category best 177g/km - whereas the other, the five-cylinder 3.2-litre single turbo it launched with, evidenced a near class-worst 234.

America's big lugger RAM was also in the black. It’s XL-sized products delivered a 283.8g/km average outcome.

One solace for ute faithful now, as then, is that makes reserved for rich listers top the scale of shame. In the data used for last year’s story, Aston Martin achieved an average of 265.1 g/km, Bentley 274.7, Ferrari 279.8, Lamborghini 305.2 and McLaren 257.3. Rolls-Royce was the worst emitter, with an average of 343.3g/km.

Notwithstanding that some of those makes are now fast-tracking into an electric age, it’s probable more of those cars are going to come under the spotlight. Some might be withdrawn, others will asuuredly become even more expensive as penalties are passed on to the customer.