Though last month showed a slight lift, 2024 is looking set to be a black year for new car sales - with the electric sector looking especially tough.

OCTOBER presenting as this year’s second strongest month for new car sales won’t keep 2024 from being one of the worst in years.

In noting that a 12,571 tally of new vehicle registrations for last month presenting as the best result since January, when the count was 78 units higher, the lobby group for new car distributors is also conceding year-to-date traffic is way lower than for the same periods of 2023 and 2022.

The latest monthly result being 373 units less than the market enjoyed in October last year, a 2.9 percent decrease, is not the worst of it, the Motor Industry Association has today acknowledged.

Year to date, the market is down 14.7 percent on the same period of 2023 - that means a 18,410 unit shortfall. 

It’s even worse when compared to 2022; by end of October that year, the market was up another 30,965 units. 

In percentage terms, the 2024 year-to-date scene is almost a quarter down on 2022.

With the new car sector, electric vehicles that were the darlings until rebates were pulled at end of last year remain the hardest cars to sell this year. 

Just 648 were registered in October - a huge drop of the same month of 2023, when 2035 found homes; the best seller last month was the Ford Mustang Mach-E (above) - subject to a massive price drop to clear 2023 stock - with 143 units. Year to date, 4836 full EVs have been registered; this time last year, that count stood at 15084. 

Plug in hybrid types have also been battered, with 345 in October, and 2403 year to date, against 936 in October 2023 and 6837 year to date.

Mild hybrid counts have come back - 3347 in October, against 2886 for the same month of 2023, with Toyota RAV4 achieving 1354 units alone. Respective year to date tallies of 24,465 and 23,282 are noted. 

But mild hybrids are the least effective of all battery-involved technologies at achieving CO2 reduction ambitions.

But also showing up is a big downturn in private buyer interest in new cars; the biggest players are now increasingly reliant on fleet, particularly the rental sector, to achieve volume.

MIA chief executive Aimee Wiley has noted in a release shared to media today that the October data revealed distinct patterns across vehicle categories, reflecting the market’s evolving dynamics.

She said rental registrations comprised 36.5 percent of light passenger sales in the month just ended, rising from 31.7 percent in October last year. 

The biggest performer in the sector still appears to be Toyota New Zealand, whose RAV4 compact sports utility - a popular rental staple - achieved the highest registrations count in October, with 1354 registered for that period and 7663 year to date.

Year-to-date, rentals have contributed 14.3 percent of light passenger sales, up from 12.6 percent in the same period last year. 

Wiley says this steady increase points to growth in rental fleet expansion, aligning with the sustained interest in short-term and travel rentals.

Overall, though, light passenger vehicles market share declined by 2.1 percent in October and is down 5.5 percent year-to-date. Wiley says this suggests stable but slightly reduced demand “in this traditionally dominant segment.”

Light commercial vehicles, in which one tonne utilities site, reached an 18.9 percent share in October, up from 16.9 percent for the same month of 2023. 

Back then ute volume had been affected by consumer resistance to paying CO2 penalty fees - all utes are high emissions vehicles.

These were dropped from point of purchase involvement when the National-led coalition Government took control, though distributors still have to pay CO2 penalties at time of importations. 

Year-to-date, light commercial represent 26.9 percent of total industry sales, rising from 22.3 percent in 2023. 

Ford Ranger was the second-strongest model for registrations in october, with 762 accrued. Ford has signalled 9459 Ranger registrations year today, against 8622 for the same period last year. Ranger was the top-selling model of 2023.

The MIA argues that the shift from cars to light commercials signals a growing preference “for vehicles offering flexibility

and versatility, particularly for mixed-use applications.”

Others might read the situation differently.

Heavy commercial vehicles continued their stable performance in October, reflecting a consistent year-to-date trend driven by business demand, Wiley suggests.

She says the latest data indicates stability in core segments and emerging trends that reflect a gradual evolution in the market. 

“With light commercial vehicles gaining popularity and light passenger vehicles holding a leading position, the industry is adapting to changing consumer preferences and economic factors.”