New grand plan: 250,000 EVs by 2025

The country’s major electric vehicle supporter has unveiled a new raft of proposals.

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NEW Zealand’s grand plan to have 64,000 electric vehicles on the roads by 2021 is proving a failure – so now the sector has hatched an ambitious new plan to have at least 250,000 of the vehicles on our roads by 2025.

Drive Electric, the organisation that wants to make EV ownership mainstream, has announced a new campaign involving five key policy platforms it wants the next Government to adopt to meet that target.

It’s a tough ask, if the poor results of the Government’s Electric Vehicles Programme announced four years ago are any indication.

That plan involved a package of measures with a target of doubling the number of EVs in New Zealand every year to reach 64,000 cars by next year. But the target has nowhere near been reached - by mid-year this year the total had reached just 20,916 – with more than 13,000 of those registrations used cars imported from overseas.

But Drive Electric argues that if New Zealand is going to meet climate change targets set by the Zero Carbon Act, it will need to see at least 250,000 new EVs on the roads by 2025, and for this trend to continue through to 2030. And that number should not include hybrids, it adds, because those non plug-in vehicles are still powered by fossil fuels.

In an interview with MotoringNZ, Drive Electric chair Mark Gilbert, pictured, criticised New Zealand’s lack of action regarding the takeup of EVs.

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“Dear old New Zealand seems to be stuck in a time warp,” he said. “But nothing’s going to change if nothing changes. That’s why we are putting this proposal out there – to point out that you’ve got to actually do stuff to make thing happen.

Drive Electric points out that New Zealand must reduce emissions by around 60 per cent by 2030 to stay within 1.5C of warming, which is the target contained in the Zero Carbon Act.

Road transport is the second-largest source of emissions in New Zealand. Our light vehicle fleet constitutes more than 90 per cent of the travel on New Zealand roads. Therefore, e-mobility is an essential part of our transport future.

Gilbert adds that for the desired level of EV ownership to be achieved, New Zealand needs a bi-partisan target and pathway that will create certainty and guide investment in e-mobility.

“It is fair to New Zealanders to be upfront about the changes that are happening when it comes to cars, which for many if their first or second-biggest asset.

“With emissions targets that need to be met, and automotive technology shifting towards emissions-free, the time is now to plan for a future New Zealand that embraces e-mobility.”

Drive Electric proposes five key actions for the next Government.

It wants development of a bi-partisan pathway for the transport sector to deliver New Zealand’s climate change objectives. This should feature clear targets and a well-defined transition pathway which engages industry and has bi-partisan support. This would create investment certainty for future governments, transport agencies, businesses and individuals.

It wants businesses to be encouraged to purchase EVs for their fleets. Such vehicles are yet to reach price parity with new petrol and diesel vehicles, and corporates may need additional encouragement to invest in them in the short term. Policy initiatives such as changing fringe benefit tax to enable private use of corporate EVs, or increasing the rate of depreciation of such cars, would incentivise their uptake. Other tax and purchase incentives could be explored, based on international experience in markets such as Sweden.

It wants the Government to take leadership in EV use. Currently, less than 1 per cent of the government fleet of 16,000 vehicles are EVs, and yet the New Zealand Government Procurement body has a goal to have the government’s fleet emissions-free by 2025. The Government could take a leadership position by executing on this position and moving the entire fleet to electric.

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It wants New Zealand made a globally attractive market for EVs. Without a clear target and pathway to transition, the country risks being overlooked by international car manufacturers as a market for new technology, competitive pricing and ranges in EVs. Worse, without clear government guidance on EV targets and emissions standards, we risk becoming a dumping ground for cheap petrol/diesel and hybrid vehicles from UK and Japan as they move to EVs.

It wants New Zealanders to be encouraged to move to EVs. Setting a bi-partisan target and transition pathway would create future certainty for motorists to consider EVs, especially as the cost of ownership reaches parity.

A discussion document produced by Drive Electric in support of its new campaign says transforming New Zealand’s fleet to EVs would have positive impacts beyond reducing emissions.

The country would be less reliant on foreign oil, which would reduce the balance of payments. Air pollution would reduce. Over time, families would save money on fuel and operating costs, particularly as the total cost of ownership of EVs is set to reach parity with petrol and diesel vehicles before 2025.

“Finally, New Zealand is an ideal market for electrification, because our electricity is renewable,” says the document.

Drive Electric is a not-for-profit organisation with a membership that represents the entire e-mobility ecosystem including electricity companies, car manufacturers, and finance companies. The five key policy platforms were devised by these members, supported by external experts including investment consultant Dr Paul Winton, economist Shamubeel Eaqub, and sustainability consultant James Walker.

Dr Winton, the founder of climate action group the 1Point5 Project, says reaching 250,000 EVs in the national fleet by 2025 is a challenging but realistic target for New Zealand.

“If we were to achieve EV adoption rates similar to what Norway has today for new-to-fleet vehicles by 2025, this would result in 250,000 EV in the light fleet. If we continued at that rate, our light fleet would comprise 30-40 per cent electric or zero emissions vehicles by 2030.

Dr Winton claims New Zealand’s transition would be easier than when Norway began 10 years ago, because EVs are becoming less expensive and more capable.

“By 2025 there will be no clear reason for consumers or businesses not to buy EVs. To buy a petrol or diesel vehicle in 2025 would be to buy a car that is more expensive at the outset, more expensive to run and repair, has a shorter lifespan, performs worse, and with higher emissions.”