Model 3 is doing the job, but Model Y could conceivably be the bigger winner.

Model 3, below, is gathering impressive sales pace, but market trends suggest the Model Y SUV sister ship could do better - though pricing to achieve the Clean Car rebate, an ingredient that seems to fuel interest in the most popular version of the sedan has, could be crucial.

EXPECTATION that even larger registrations returns are likely this month and next for the Tesla whose market-resetting September result stunned is also whetting consumer appetite for a sister model with even better prospects.

Those familiar with the impressive wave of interest garnered this year almost wholly by one variant of the marque’s least expensive car, Model 3, seem confident October and November will deliver even bigger results than September’s impressive 1066 outcome.

“The next couple of months are going to be huge – you are going to see a lot of cars coming, more than in September,” a person close to the action says.

Confirmation about this from Tesla itself has proven elusive. The brand disbanded its global public relations effort some time ago.

Tesla also tends not to make noise about its sales progress in any given market.

However legislation here means there’s no hiding that data in New Zealand.

All new vehicle registration counts are open to public scrutiny and much data is published monthly. This shows Model 3 has been ramping up all year. Un shapr contrast to the larger, far more expensive Model X and Model S. Those cars appear to have slipped back, perhaps feeling the heat from other premium brands having taken on their turf.

Interest in the Model 3 and, in particular the Standard Range edition that is the sole variant to achieve the Government’s Clean Car rebate, comes as national excitement among Teslarati is building in respect to a sister car, the Model Y.

When NZ will achieve this practical edition that direct-hits the NZ market’s overall fascination with sports utility models is a hot subject within EV fan forums.

Tesla is giving nothing away: The car is listed on the make’s New Zealand website but all intendees can do is click a ‘stay updated’ button.

Model Y’s projections are obvious. SUVs and crossovers easily outsell all other body shapes now and interest in anything in that style coming with electric is clear: It’s been a factor in the MG ZS EV being the second strongest-selling battery-pure model here.

Confirmation about the Model Y being added into the NZ range could come at any time – the car’s expansion to right-hand drive markets is already under way.

Tesla fans in the United Kingdom can now order the car and activity in Australia, with which NZ-specification cars are shared, has been building up steadily, mainly with certification allowing for sale there being sorted. The approval was gained last month.

However, the brand has been telling media across the Tasman that an initial hope to start deliveries in late 2021 could be under threat; early or even late 2022 suggested as the new dates. Regulatory delays, strong demand overseas and chip shortages have been cited as factors.

The Model Y shares much more than the Model 3 underpinning and drivetrains - Tesla claims that 95 percent of the sedan’s tech has been carried over – but presents in a SUV profile that delivers more space. Its design is a progression of the Model 3’s, with a chunkier body below the window line and a taller roof, which results in a more commodious interior, big enough to run in a three-row seven chair format if required.

In that regard it could also be considered a smaller sibling to the Model X, a full-sized SUV, but it a much more convenient price bracket and more orthodox design – no gullwing rear doors on this one.

Whether it also achieves the Clean Car rebate has become of primary importance – there’s no argument that interest in the Model 3 has grown hugely with it benefitting from an almost $9000 cash back that comes with selling an EV for less than $80,000.

Some factors do challenge the Model Y. First, in markets it already resides in, it carries a premium over the Model 3. Also, although Model Y is being produced in rear-drive, and a car in that configuration appears to be offered to consumers in Hong Kong, another right hand drive market, the export push primarily appears to be behind those with four-wheel drive. This is enabled courtesy of a two-motor set-up with one fitted to each axle. One cost efficiency with the Model 3 SR is that it is a single motor car. Dual motor Model 3s do not achieve the rebate.

Model Y is expected to come to NZ from the same plant in China that delivers the Model 3 SR.

Tesla fans have been looking to the make’s Hong Kong website for the skinny on what might come here.

It shows the Standard Range will have 455km driving range (WLTP), acceleration from 0-100kmh in 5.6 seconds, with 19 inch Gemini wheels as standard or an optional 20 inch Induction wheels.

The Long Range will have 542km driving range (WLTP), with acceleration to 100kmh in five seconds and 20 inch Induction wheels as standard.

The Performance Model Y offers up to 528km driving range (WLTP) with accelration to 100kmh in 3.7 seconds and 21 inch Uberturbine wheels, performance brakes and lowered suspension as standard.

An Australian website specialising in reporting on that country’s EV scene, The Driven, reported that in August, three Model Ys – a Standard Range, a Long Range and a Performance – were shipped to Australia. There was speculation the vehicles could potentially be used for ANCAP testing, homologation ahead of being added to the Road Vehicle Certification System (RVCS) or for staff education.

All this comes a Tesla has posted impressive earnings for the third quarter of 2021, with its profits quadrupling to a record $US1.6 billion for the period - a quarterly record.

Tesla’s revenues were also record-setting, climbing to around $US13.8 billion, although that figure fell slightly short of the $US14 billion expected by Wall Street analysts.

Tesla’s earnings can be put down to the company’s continued growth in production, with the company building around 240,000 vehicles between July and September - a 64 percent year on year increase.

In addition to the plant in Shanghai, which only opened in December of 2019, Tesla has factories in California and Texas, with another in Germany set to begin operation before year-end.

The next models it plans to produce are the delayed Roadster and Cybertruck. These are expected to go into production in 2023.