Toyota Japan's EV reset raises TNZ interest, but hybrid strategy still the go

Latest shared advancements and investment by HQ shows this car-maker is no sleeping giant, Neeraj Lala says.

AS much as Toyota New Zealand’s immediate electrification future will be hybrid-led, home market events - plus the brand locally being almost ready to undertake a hydrogen drive - should serve to remind Japan’s most powerful car maker is no technology laggard.

This from TNZ boss Neeraj Lala, offering comment in wake of Toyota Motor Company having freshly demonstrated an electric drivetrain utilising potentially game-changing solid state battery science and committing to invest around $NZ19.1 billion on the development and supply of EV batteries by 2030. 

Toyota has taken flak for being slow to roll out a pure electric car, but the solid state development would put it ahead of the EV game if realised.

How soon here? These latest developments in Japan time nicely with TNZ spurring interest in another future fuel, hydrogen, with a soon-to-start public-involved programme involving the Mirai fuel cell car.

Lexus UX300e landing in November will be Toyota’s first full electric offer here.

The market leader is also ramping up to ultimately release six fully electric (but likely all lithium ion battery) products over the next few years – first the Lexus UX300e in November and a Toyota-badged ‘bz’ medium sports utility next year, based off a medium sports utility concept called bZ4X.

Japan’s latest plans indicate that it is ultimately eying similar success in battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) at it has enjoyed with hybrids, by gaining leadership in battery technology and supply, but Lala cautions that impact cannot be expected here for years yet. 

His view that hybrid is set to continue as the primary element of the brand’s electrification strategy in the immediate future has not altered. 

The exact point when BEVs might overtake that petrol-electric technology with which Toyota has easily established global dominance – having sold more than 17 million hybrid cars after kicking off with that first Prius in 1997 -  is not clearly mapped, either here or internationally.

“We have 16 electrified models that we are already planning for over the next five years, of which six are zero emission and coming over the next two to three years.

“We think we will have our electric cars out in time and we also see a future for hydrogen as well … we want to explore all opportunities. I don’t see Toyota as lagging in these areas.

 “There has been a ton of investment to make sure our electrification journey is going to be a sustainable one.” 

In terms of battery design, Toyota’s batteries for hybrid vehicles are either nickel-metal hydride or lithium-ion.

It has been working to improve both the cost and endurance of the latter and chief technology officer Masahiko Maeda has revealed the company is “developing a further advanced new type of lithium-ion battery for introduction in the second half of the 2020s.”

Toyota also believes it can reduce the cost of batteries by 30 percent or more by developing new materials and structures; the first car to benefit from this will be bZ4X.

The brand’s assertion that markets with best Green energy development might be prioritised sounds outwardly tasty for NZ as most of our electricity comes from wind, solar, thermal and hydro. However, we shouldn’t read too much into that.

Lala says even a giant like Toyota with its huge production resources will struggle to immediately satisfy every market. Also, even if and when these cars come, will Kiwis immediately take to them?

One factor here is the huge loyalty to hybrid; potentially some petrol-electric fans might believe, at least for a period, that this is as far as they need to go.

“The challenges will not just be availability but also affordability … I think it will take a bit of time. It will be a case of how quickly demand ramps up from an affordability perspective. That will be a market decision.”

Neeraj Lala: “I certainly see our hybrids playing a critical role for the next five years. And we feel that hybrid, in terms of a pathway to full electrics, is still the right strategy.”

He’s not against seeing more EVs here; quite the contrary. “If a whole bunch of EV (models) were to suddenly start flooding into NZ, that would be a huge positive for all car companies.”

NZ being able to secure a wide variety of products to meet all consumer expectations, in a reasonable enough volume and at a readily-accessible price is far from resolved

The quality of what is needed in that battery tech is still evolving … the challenge is that there are not enough EVs out there that are affordable. 

“That’s not to say we are obsessing with hybrids. But you have to have good, transitional gateway technology and that is what hybrid is. They are a low-emissions solution until those battery cars turn up.”

Forty percent of TNZ volume at present is accounted by hybrid models – a huge leap over three years ago when those products achieved 10 percent of sales.  

While interest was already strong before Government’s Clean Car initiatives were announced, it has strengthened since. Lala expects it to increase again after rebates effect from January 1. 

“I certainly see our hybrids playing a critical role for the next five years. And we feel that hybrid, in terms of a pathway to full electrics, is still the right strategy.”

TNZ has previously acknowledged the most popular petrol-electrics are subject to long waiting times. Since then, Toyota Japan has had to idle 14 factories this month and cut its global production target by 300,00 vehicles due to Covid-19, parts and semiconductor chip shortages.  

“We have more than 16,000 back orders at the moment and the majority of those are hybrids. 

“We are going to sell more than 10,000 hybrids this year. We sold more hybrids last year than Mazda sold new vehicles, as an entire brand.

“Everyone is talking about (Ford) Ranger being number one, but we could end up selling more hybrids than Ford sells new, if we get the stock in time.”

Japan’s decision to share information about where it is at with solid state batteries was a pertinent reminder that Toyota has been quietly working assiduously on this technology for some time.

“There has been criticism around our speed to bring the product to market, but the investment in battery technology has probably been under way for longer than any other car company,” Lala says.

“We have probably made a bigger investment in research and development, specifically in electrification, outside of companies that have actually delivered in niche product. 

Toyota NZ’s push with ‘beyond zero’ product starts next year with a production spin-off of the bZ4X sports utility.

“Of course, that’s not the area we play in. We don’t play in niche … we are a brand to serve all customers. So we don’t consider ourselves a laggard. But that’s not always what gets reported.”

Even though Toyota, the world’s largest car maker by volume, has been first to market with a lot of technologies, it is a ‘traditional’ company that doesn’t usually come forward with concepts it is working on until they are close to realisation.

“We’ve generally held our cards quite close to our chest in terms of future product,” Lala says. “Sometimes the perception when we don’t share is that we are behind.” 

Toyota has explained that its battery development programme is not wholly hinged on solid state; it is also investing in next-generation lithium cells.

However, the enthusiasm and advancement in the solid state sphere is certainly tangible, with the brand keen to show off a prototype vehicle actually running and driving with batteries that represent as a potentially game-changing technology.

By replacing liquid electrolytes used in current batteries with solid material, the batteries are far less flammable which allows them to run in a wider temperature window.  

It's thought that this could allow solid-state batteries to achieve greater power delivery as well as faster charging times, due to the lower risk of thermal runaway leading to fiery destruction. Additionally, there are potential gains to energy density too, which could lead to lighter vehicles with longer range. 

The vehicle chosen for the demonstration (see video) appears to be a version of Toyota's LQ Concept, which first debuted at the 2019 Tokyo Motor Show as an artificial intelligence and self-driving demonstrator.

Since then, it's had a starring role in a series of commercials for the recent Tokyo Olympic Games.

Meantime, Lexus kicking off Toyota’s EV strategy in NZ seems appropriate, as 70 percent of the luxury marque’s models are already hybrid, the latest to go wholly that way being the updated ES medium sedan.

The UX300e has the same shape as the regular UX compact SUV but runs a 150kW electric motor that drives the front wheels and is powered by a 54.3kWh lithium-ion battery said to deliver 400km of driving range.

With bZ, Toyota intends to create a family of seven cars, all out by the end of 2025.

Meantime, TNZ says it is just weeks away from announcing a programme for Mirai.

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