Exact repercussion of Trump policy too soon to tell, but local sellers’ organisation is watching for ripple effect.

WHAT impact any trade war kicked off by the United States will have on pricing or even ongoing availability of some high-profile new vehicles here is not yet clear, but a ripple effect would concern distributors.

New Zealand receives more than a dozen new vehicles from the US and Mexico and more from China. All are threatened to be hit by American tariffs.

NZ-bound choices out of North America includes high-end prestige cars from German makes, a span of US domestic models, a popular Toyota family sports utility and a Nissan competitor.

In addition, North America is a major supply source for components likely going to other countries that also deliver cars here.

Expert commentators in North America have predicted the tariffs, if enacted, will add between $US3000/$NZ5388 to $US10,000/$17,795 to the price of an affected vehicle, depending on how they implement. Calculation is specific to US market cars but the thought is brands will seek to spread the load, so also layer it in export product.

Also predicted is a crisis for the region’s huge components industry; it’s common for engines, car seats and multiple other components to cross the US border multiple times before going into a finished vehicle. Common commentator agreement is that those costs will invariably pass onto the consumer, whereever that buyer might be.

Those possibilities are being taken onboard by the Motor Industry Association, the representative body for most distributors. But it is not jumping the gun.

“It remains too soon to predict any direct consequences for New Zealand,” MIA chief executive Aimee Wiley says.

However, she added, “while New Zealand is not directly affected at this stage, global trade developments can have flow-on effects.

“Tariffs can influence costs, supply chains, and trade dynamics. We continue to assess any potential implications for vehicle costs and supply chains.

“It is too early to determine what, if any, impact these developments may have on the New Zealand market (but) the MIA, alongside the wider industry, is monitoring developments, particularly any response from China, given its role in global supply chains.

“The MIA will continue to monitor these developments and keep the industry informed as the situation evolves.”

The Donald Trump administration’s determination to impose 25 percent tariffs against Canada and Mexico, two of its biggest trade partners, and 10 percent on China, announced at the weekend.

Mexico and Canada have now effected a stay of 30 days; Canada’s agreement came after it began reciprocal action. China is still mullings it reaction.

About half the new vehicles that come to New Zealand from North America are from US domestic brands; Ford, Jeep, RAM, Chevrolet/General Motors and Cadillac. But premium German makes Audi, BMW and Mercedes Benz also source from the region. As do Toyota and Nissan.

Almost all BMW’s X-branded crossover cars come out of Spartanburg, South Carolina; the volume count out of that plant is so great as to make BMW America’s biggest car exporter.

A popular mainstream Toyota here, the Highlander, and another sports utility, Nissan Pathfinder, are solely made in the US for international markets.

America’s highest profile electric car producer, Tesla, no longer ships US-made cars here. The two models flying its flag locally, Model 3 sedan and its SUV sister ship, the Model Y, both source from China. Yet both appear to use components from the parent in the US, so there’s conjecture if China acts to tariff US-made goods, there could be a flow-on.

Ford New Zealand’s sole passenger electric model, the Mustang Mach-E, is built in Mexico. The Lyriq electric luxury SUV re-launching the Cadillac brand here is from the US.

The most recent car from Canada to sell in New Zealand was the Ford Endura, which ceased sale in 2020, two years after availability began.

America’s Automotive Parts Manufacturers’ Association warned the tariffs threaten to bring automotive production in the United States to “a screeching halt”, because economies of scale within the parts supply industry will be destroyed.

It said the tariff rate of 25 percent is “15 percent higher than anyone’s profit margin.”