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Read MoreJAGUAR and Land Rover intent to undertake a full-strength switch to electric powertrains has left the New Zealand distributor eager to learn more.
Steve Kenchington, Jaguar Land Rover New Zealand’s general manager, agrees the customer base – particularly on the Land Rover side – will need time to digest the implication of today’s announcement from the United Kingdom, but personally it’s exciting news.
“This has come as quite a big surprise to us – a pleasant surprise – in what it might it look like and what they are planning. There is much we don’t know.
“What is most exciting for us is that JLR has now defined the future direction for the brands and that this is happening on the back of a significant turnaround for them.”
The strategy unrolled today is for Land Rover to launch six pure electric models within the next five years while its sister brand is to be reimagined as an all-electric luxury marque by 2025.
How that impacts on the makes’ individual model has yet to be spelled out.
Jaguar is already of course engaging in the EV-sphere with its iPace sports utility, a New Zealand Car of the Year winner that accounts for 10 percent of local Jaguar volume.
Yet it still produces its other cars – the E Pace and F Pace SUVs, the F-Type sports cars and XE and XF sedans – in conventional fossil fuelled form.
Today Jaguar also confirmed the replacement XJ large sedan, which had been destined to come out later this year as an electric product, has been abandoned.
The transition period for Land Rover seems to be longer, but the end game will be even more dramatic. The green badge division has some plug-in hybrids and is about to release an update of the Range Rover Sport locally with a new six-cylinder petrol that could, Kenchington agrees, become the last orthodox conventional fossil-fuelled drivetrain it delivers to market.
Next year it will bring out a new Range Rover and beyond that the next Range Rover Sport, both expected to have a mix of mild and plug-in hybrid drivetrains.
The prospect of diesel models continuing for much longer seems unlikely, the local man suspects – “I think the latest Ingenium engines we are now bringing out will be the last” - even though this has been a preferred choice in the current Defender – which is about to go to a plug-in hybrid petrol choice – and the Discovery, which could yet be the first Land Rover to deliver the wholly electric promise as a new one is on the drawing board for release within three years.
Alternately, the Evoque and Defender Sport might become early adopters of a battery-pure approach. It’s all speculation at the moment.
He thinks Land Rover’s petrol engines have a future, but in hybrid formats. “They have certainly put a lot of work into making them more eco-friendly and I suspect we will continue to see the benefit of that in the short to medium term.”
He reminds that the off-road specialist is continuing research into hydrogen fuel cell as well. Last week JLR confirmed that fuel cell powertrain development forms a core part of its ‘Reimagine’ strategy and said it will begin road testing prototypes within the next 12 months.
Last year, the company detailed its Project Zeus initiative: a serious hydrogen power research project with the aim of developing fuel cell-powered versions of its larger vehicles. It has now reinforced that ambition to prepare itself for "the expected adoption of clean fuel-cell power in line with a maturing of the hydrogen economy".
For its part, Jaguar Land Rover nonetheless says that all of its brands’ nameplates will be available with an all-electric variant by 2030.
Land Rover should be selling around 60 percent of its cars in pure-electric form by the end of the decade. However, it has stated that its first pure-electric model will be in production in 2024.
A company release stated, “In the next five years, Land Rover will welcome six pure-electric variants as it continues to be the world leader of luxury SUVs through its three families of Range Rover, Discovery and Defender. The first all-electric variant will arrive in 2024.”
Kenchington says it is clear that customers have a lot to take onboard and will be asked to alter their preferences: Ironically, he muses, the five-litre supercharged V8 that is the antitheses of automotive Green intent is “selling like hot cakes for us at the moment.”
If a pure electric large Land or Range Rover were magicked into sales-ready form right now, it might still be a hard sell to many brand fans. Many probably just aren’t comfortable with electric.
He says it will therefore be crucial for the brand to mount an effective campaign to convert supporters to the new direction. He thinks it will be achievable, particularly once Land Rover can show that all the historic benefits that associate with its off-roaders will be maintained, if not enhanced, by having a battery-drawn drivetrain.
“At the moment there’s never been so much demand for big ICE engines; we’ve probably never previously sold as many V8 supercharged as we at the moment.
The successful of EV transition will “come down to how good it is, how efficient it is, what the range is ….
“But if it is going to continue to be a Land Rover in its DNA, then I think people will embrace it. There is no reason not to. We have all driven electric and we know how good it is. If it can still submerge to 900mm in a river crossing and do all the other things our vehicles are really good at then there’s no reason why anyone wouldn’t want to go there.”
“It is all very exciting.”
The plans for Jaguar are more complex, simply because while it was heading toward electric anyway, much has changed with the XJ limousine being scrapped.
In respect to this, the statement from Jaguar headquarters said it is still possible the XJ nameplate might be retained.
“By the middle of the decade, Jaguar will have undergone a renaissance to emerge as a pure-electric luxury brand with a dramatically beautiful new portfolio of emotionally engaging designs and pioneering next-generation technologies. Jaguar will exist to make life extraordinary by creating dramatically beautiful automotive experiences that leave its customers feeling unique and rewarded.”
Overseas commentators say the XE, XF, E-Pace, F-Pace and F-Type would now appear to have a finite lifespan, with all-electric replacements due by around 2025.
Kenchington says those products present interesting potentials. As much as iPace has found a place in the local market, Jaguar really needs other electric products in more convenient price zones than the $150,000-plus SV has nestled into.
Jaguar is likely to unroll its model specific strategies in coming months, he believes. “But clearly F-Type and F-Pace will go all-electric and you would expect E-Pace to do so as well.”
The $80,000 to $100,000 zone where XE and XF mainly position is an area that he is keen to exploit.
“At the (iPace) price point there is a limited audience but I think there is an appetite for electric and we just have to get to the point where we can produce these vehicles a bit cheaper.”
Jaguar’s sedans have struggled in fossil fuel formats and yet as much market shift to SUVs suggests orthodox four-door booted cars are a dying breed, he looks to how well Tesla has done with the Model 3 and Model S.
“From my perspective I’m keen to understand what they will do with the sedan market. It looks like XJ will not go ahead, but what they are going to do with XE and XF is interesting – do they keep both, do they keep one, do they have an XF and a long-wheelbase XF to create an XJ alternate? I just don’t know.
How important could electric Jaguar sedans be in NZ, given we are so SUV-centric? Conceivably, they shouldn’t be, and yet …
“If you look at the performance of Tesla, you’d say ‘quite important.’ Model 3 and Model S have been very successful. It feels to me that electric (in a sedan format) seems to attract.”
“In saying that, it could be that this is because there has not been much to offer in the way of SUVs. Tesla were first into the market, there was nothing else to buy … and you buy what you can. It’s very clear that the SUV segments continue to grow and the sedan segments continue to decline.”
His gut feeling is that Jaguar is probably considering E-Pace, F-Pace and another ‘Pace’ model as yet undisclosed being core to the electric drive. But maybe the sedans could survive. “I don’t know.”
The decisions lading to today’s announcement come after Jaguar Land Rover appointed ex-Renault executive Thierry Bollore to replace former CEO Dr Ralf Speth. The Frenchman started his new post last September but has kept a determinedly low profile as he undertook a full review of JLR’s business, current model line-up and future launch plans.
Today’s new has affirmed that JLR is able to retain all of its current production facilities, thereby quashing rumours that one of its UK factories might have been under threat of closure.
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