The reality of Government’s Clean Car mandate is impacting selection choices being made by the country’s largest seller of new passenger models.

Toyota Japan has ceased taking additional orders for the Landcruiser 300 … but even if production does free up, it and the sister Lexus will remain low volume choices from now on.

HOW many electrified, electric and, one day, hydrogen fuel cell cars will be required to offset to environmental impact made by popular family products lacking low-to-zero emissions technologies?

Toyota and conjoined make Lexus are on the pathway to working that one out, but in the case of their largest product the answer seems to be … too many.

A policy to refine availability of high emissions models that stand to upset achieving a fleet-wide CO2 target has been enacted by the makes’ national distributor. The first vehicle to feel the impact is a big target: The largest off-road wagon Toyota and Lexus have.

In deciding to restrict availability of the five/seven-seater LandCruiser 300 Series and conjoined LX500d, there’s nonetheless confidence from Palmerston North head office it can avoid tightening availability of other equally emissions-fraught models, far more vital to volume aspiration – Hilux ute among them.

It has suggested ongoing technology improvements dedicated to its already now heavily-hybrid passenger car lines will off-set the impact made by those far more popular products, whose commonality is that all have emissions counts that have been penalised by Clean Car since April 1.

Toyota’s big-selling one-tonne utility, the HiAce van, two other LandCruisers - the 70-Series and Prado - plus the Toyota Fortuner are all bonded by being diesel-dedicated models with CO2 counts exceeding Government’s 192 grams per kilometre limit, which means they cop penalities. At the moment, buyers bear that cost but from January 1 CO2 targets for vehicle importers apply and will strengthen annually through to 2027. Distributors will cop penalty if their fleet average exceeds Government expectation.

It’s highly likely other distributors will follow the Toyota/Lexus lead, and massage their product mixes to avoid cost whenever that’s possible.

In respect to the LandCruiser 300 and LX500d, the policy is to cut back on the consignment rather than completely drop the models, an absolute that could yet occur with high CO2 vehicles over time.

Some might consider this something of a Green-washing approach. The cars are among many of the brands’ products that are in short supply, due to mainly coronavirus-related issues; including a semiconductor shortage than has caused Toyota to detune its global production schedules.

In this instance, the big off-roaders are already subject to a 12 month wait. On top of that, the parent in Japan has now suspended taking international orders additional to those placed, because it is so snowed under.

As much as they hold high popularity with specific buyer groups, the LandCruiser and Lexus in their previous generation never sold in abundance – or, at least, to anything like the same levels as the mainstream models hurt by the CO2 penalty. There’s been no shared expectation of the new model lines being any different.

Toyota New Zealand says around 200 LandCruiser 300s are here and it has availed at a rate of 15-20 units a month, while Lexus flow is generally at 10 units.

That level of exposure to a model that delivers in three levels of trim behind the Toyota badge, spanning from $124,900 to $144,990, and two Lexus LX500d formats, both for $175,900, seems unlikely to improve. It might even diminish.

Greater access is counter-productive to TNZ ambition to pin back average new vehicle fleet carbon emissions, a senior manager has explained.

“We are cutting back on our allocation requests … we’ve significantly reduced our volume and that’s in preparation as we move our mix down in CO2,” said general manager of sales Steve Prangnell in discussing the cap.

“We are proactively approaching our mix, based on trending down toward our (CO2 average) target.”

Toyota and Lexus have determined to achieve a combined CO2 average of 179

grams per kilometre next year, from 183g/km at present, a target which places increasing reliance on hybrids and, ultimately, still-emergent plug-in hybrids and full battery cars, and also demands weaning away from high CO2 culprits.

Aside from the LX and RC-F petrol V8 coupe, Lexus models are electrified and, in one model, fully electric. Toyota will next year introduce a wholly electric car, the bZ4X, that’s also the basis of another Lexus, the RZ450e.

Japan’s No.1 is also the world’s leader in mild hybrid and that petrol-electric technology now spans all mainstream Toyota models, Corolla announced as the latest convert in all forms save the performance GR.

Ironically, the 300 Series and LX500d’s 3.3-litre V6 turbodiesel was developed to become more fuel efficient and cleaner than the previous lines’ V8 diesel. Yet it still outputs 268 grams of CO2 per 100km when calculated to Government’s 3P-WLTP conversion. That’s too high, Prangnell has inferred.

Asked if those models are paying the price for high emissions, Prangnell replied: “Yes. We’re just trying to balance what we can do as we move toward a low emissions product mix.”

TNZ’s website cites CO2 counts from Hilux - destined to one day take an electrified platform, but with no clear timeframe – as ranging from 227-281g/km. HiAce’s are from 227-251g/km.

The LandCruiser 70-Series utility and wagon output 318g/km and the Prado makes 240g/km. The Hilux-spun Fortuner wagon cites 231g/km.

Conceivably, those vehicles could also be the firing line, with Prangnell saying the corporate plan is to move “the entire model mix” down in CO2 and adding that: “If you look at our product range now, we are currently running at around 33 percent hybrid mix and we will be at 42 percent next year.”

However, when asked if the availability of those models might also become restricted or worse, he offered that would not necessarily have to happen.

Because? “Toyota Motor Company’s development on low emission powertrains is moving at a quick pace.

“Akio (chairman Akio Toyoda) has stated that Toyota will continue to develop and invest in all powertrains, so we are seeing more mainstream model lines - like Corolla/RAV4, etc - available with electrified powertrains.”

A greater proliferation of mild and plug-in hybrid, plus battery and fuel cell products – a reference to the hydrogen-reliant Mirai TNZ is trialling in Auckland – “will naturally reduce our overall combined CO2 footprint, allowing us to balance out our product portfolio with the higher emitting vehicles.

“We have also seen that as new generations of our current vehicles come in, with new low C02 internal combustion technologies, their CO2 footprint is reduced.

“So, in short we are looking for alternative low emission product from all over the world and we so aren’t abandoning any powertrain or customer.”

He accepted the LandCruiser 300 decision might not be welcomed; it’s a popular choice in the lower South Island, with high country farmers.

“But we have a commitment. We have to do this, otherwise we cannot get there (the CO2 target).”

Conceivably it and LX could ultimately be thrown a lifeline. When the Lexus model was unveiled globally last year, there was talk of it taking a hybrid drivetrain using the twin-turbo 3.5-litre V6 petrol going to other markets.

The LandCruiser 300 was supposed to have arrived last October, but became a victim of coronavirus impact on production and component supply, mainly to do with semiconductors, so only started to show in volume just before its Lexus sister ship landed in March.

The order bank for both stretches a year here. In Japan, it’s worse – anyone there laying down cash for a LandCruiser won’t see it until 2024.

Hence why Toyota Japan has just posted an advisory on its public website saying that, because global demand “greatly exceeds our production capacity”, it has taken the extreme step of suspending all new orders until it can catch up. It has not indicated when this might lift.

Toyota here has on several occasions, most recently with announcement of chief executive Neeraj Lala’s election to the steering committee of the Climate Leaders Coalition, enforced its commitment to a decarbonised transport sector and transition plans to a low-emissions economy.

The corporate goal is being carbon neutral by 2050.