Star-less future for some popular models?

ANCAP’s decision to expire dated safety ratings for some vehicles still selling new here rankles the distributors’ advocate organisation.

The most recent ANCAP assessment of the Mitsubishi Triton was in March of 2015.

AT least a dozen new vehicles, among them a one-tonne utility that was an especially popular choice last month, seem likely to be stripped of ratings that show them to be good choices for safety.

The Triton (above), the country’s third-best selling model in February and benefitting from a consumer rush to avoid the impending ute tax, is one of three Mitsubishi vehicles on sale here that appear caught up in a move by the national safety accreditor to expire outdated crash test ratings at the end of this year.

Also snared in an intent to void ratings once they age beyond six years are a SUV version of the Mitsubishi traydeck, the Pajero Sport, and the make’s smallest crossover, the ASX.

The Toyota Prado, Nissan Navara, Mazda CX-3 and Mazda2, Suzuki Vitara and two Volkswagens, the Amarok utility and the Passat car, are cited.

All have five-star safety ratings from the Australasian New Car Assessment programme, decided when such evaluation was to a lower standard than now exists. Triton’s score was delivered in 2015 but others date back to 2011. ASX’s bases on a test conducted in 2010.

 The Australia-based independent crash tester, part-funded by the New Zealand Government, Waka Kotahi New Zealand Transport Agency and New Zealand Automobile Association – which often spoke on ANCAP’s behalf here until its previous chief executive in 2019 – is now acting to address this by progressively retiring old scores.

The Motor Industry Association, which represents almost new vehicle distributors is unhappy about ANCAP’s plan.

 However, chief executive David Crawford says, argument his organisation has repeatedly put about the confusions and inequalities it believes exists with rating standards in NZ – which are made all the more complex by this country accepting used imports – have always been ignored.

The ASX is the oldest car Mitsubishi still sells here. Its ANCAP rating is based on a 2010 assessment.

The outcome, however, is that some of those five star models might have to suffer the stigma of going without an ANCAP score for perhaps just a few months; as replacements are already coming. Others, though, might have to carry the weight for longer periods, perhaps several years in respect to one.

ANCAP scores carry priority recognition with regulators, safety agencies and for distributors here. Makers are voluntary participants in the tests, which have become increasingly expensive, with each involving up to six examples of any vehicle.

The status of the ANCAP outcome as the default car safety benchmark is helped by it having aligned with European NCAP, considered the world-leading crash test assessor.

ANCAP’s relevance has also nonetheless been questioned. When it kicked off it was testing Australia-made Holden, Ford, Toyota and Mitsubishi cars specifically relevant to this part of the world. That obviously is no longer a consideration. Often, now, ANCAP ratings are based on outcomes of Euro NCAP tests. While many new vehicles sold here are in common usage on both sides of the Tasman, some are not. Regardless of the funding out of this country, ANCAP doesn’t deliver ratings on new cars that might only come to New Zealand.

The commonality with all the models cited by ANCAP now is that they have scores issued prior to 2015 and remain on sale as new choices.

In the past decade ANCAP and Euro NCAP protocols have revised and crash test criteria has become more stringent to the point, the Australasian agency says, scores for the cited vehicles are too outdated to be wholly relevant.

The improvement in testing has been a factor in vehicle makers having introduced more advanced safety aids and occupant protections. Sometimes these have gone into older vehicles as updates, but not always.

It is generally accepted older vehicles would be highly unlikely to maintain their accredited scores if assessed to today’s more stringent requirements.

Heavy-duty off-road vehicles have extra-long production cycles. The Toyota Land Cruiser Prado’s test score was achieved in 2011. It’s conjected this model might remain in production until perhaps 2024.

Evidence that new car buyers often, when making purchase decisions based on safety, just look for star counts without taking the date of test into account has become an emergent concern for some years.

There has been acceptance that it can be difficult, too, for buyers who do understand this issue to compare five-star ratings across similar vehicle types, without delving into the forensic details.

In layman’s terms, though, it has been long accepted that a vehicle issued with a fresh five-star rating is almost always safer than one with a score from, as a for instance, 10 years ago.

To ensure best-possible clarity in respect to this, ANCAP has decided to deem as ‘unrated’ all new motor vehicles with a safety rating from 2015 or earlier – unless they are updated and resubmitted to new tests, or replaced by a new model. 

The Triton falls into this category because it carries the five-star safety rating from the pre-facelift model introduced in 2015. Navara’s test was also conducted in 2015, as was Pajero Sport’s.

 The other utilities that achieved status as the country’s most popular new vehicle choices last month, respectively the Ford Ranger and Toyota Hilux, are also five-star models. The Ranger’s status also comes from a 2011 test, but it is in runout, with a replacement – set to undergo an entirely fresh test – due between June and August, depending on reports. Hilux was tested in 2019.

The Amarok and Prado five-star safety ratings also date from 2011. Amarok at that time was the first dual-cab ute to win five stars.

Mazda CX-3 was evaluated by ANCAP in 2015, as was Mazda2.

It is normal practice for car companies to replace older vehicles with newer models within five to seven years, hence the adoption of a new six-year expiry. However, that doesn’t play well for heavy duty sports utilities, which commonly have far more prolonged production lifespans. The Prado falls into that category.

A new Triton is now being developed, and will become the basis of the next-generation Navara; the Mitsubishi is unlikely to be seen for at least another year and the Nissan is touted as a 2024 entry.

The replacement Amarok, a sister ship to the 2022 Ford Ranger arriving after June, is also cited as a 2023 release here. The Prado might be expected to soldier on until perhaps 2024 or later, according to overseas’ speculation. 

While the ANCAP scores will be expired, they will not be totally expunged. The organisation intends to retain that data in a ‘previous models’ section of its website from the end of 2022, according to the Drive.com.au website.

In New Zealand, the vehicles appear set to be re-rated to a used car safety schedule, in part devised to give idea of the crash integrity of ex-Japan cars that being configured for the domestic market, with no expectation of these being shipped off as used vehicles, generally lack an international rating.

Used car ratings base on data accrued by Monash University in Australia. If that is not available then an average rating, based on the type of vehicle it is, comes into play.

ANCAP does not have the authority to ban or approve vehicles for sale. 

Mitsubishi, Mazda and Toyota were approached for comment.

Mitsubishi Motors New Zealand spokesman Reece Congdon said: “Thanks for the opportunity, but it’s not something we’re going to comment on at this time.”

Mazda NZ and Toyota NZ did not reply.

MMNZ has already in the past year taken a big blow from ANCAP, with the organisation deciding the Express van, despite being loaded with a swag of safety ingredients (and being a version of a Renault that did well in an earlier Euro NCAP assessment), deserved a zero score, the poorest outcome ever from the agency. Conversely, ANCAP has also just awarded the new Outlander a high five-star score and praised the safety elements.

Volkswagen Amarok’s test was conducted in 2011. It was the first dual-cab ute to achieve a five star acore. A new Amarok is coming in 2023.

Crawford said his organisation, and its equivalent in Australia (the FCAI) were aligned in their view in respect to ANCAP’s decision.

“We’re not happy that ANCAP have decided to retire ratings after six years. We believe the rating should always been read as (belonging to) the year the rating was done.

“But retiring it is a fait accompli and we just have to live with it.”

 He said New Zealand having a range of ratings made for a complex situation.

Record March despite supply disruptions

Vehicles are fast-tracking to customers.

Toyota Hilux was the top-selling model in March.

CONSTRICTED new vehicle supply continues to hamper distributors – though last month’s registrations count might suggest otherwise.

Last month 15,498 new vehicle were registered. It’s the highest March count since record-keeping began back in the 1970s.

That this tally represents a massive 86.3 percent up on the same month last year is easily explained – the country went into the Covid-19 Level 4 in March of 2020, so distribution, sale and delivery was highly restricted. April last year was also bleak, with 1039 registrations, a 90 percent fall on April of 2019.

Last month’s accrual follows a record February, when 12,488 registrations were notified. Year to date the market is up 27.6 percent (9046 units) compared to the first quarter of 2020.

And all this is despite supply disruption, resultant from Covid-19 though a global shortage of semiconductor is also influencing. This is a rebound from manufacturers having cut chip orders as vehicle sales fell last year. They have found themselves at the back of the queue when the market rebounded. The entire global car industry buys about $US37 billion worth of chips.

“A year on from our first Covid-19 lockdown, our sector is still operating under disrupted supply arrangements and supply shortages,” says David Crawford, chief executive of the distributor organisation, the Motor Industry Association.

“As shipments arrive, vehicles are going straight through Customs, distributor pre-delivery inspections and entry compliance, to the franchised dealer and on to the new owner, who invariably has been on a wait list.”

Most popular vehicle last month was the Toyota Hilux, which continues to enjoy buoyant sales following a massive facelift late last year. In March it recorded 1019 registrations to claim a 19 percent share of the commercial market. Arch-rival Ford Ranger accounted for 828 sales to sit in second spot, with Mitsubishi Triton third on 691.

In the passenger segment the Mitsubishi Outlander again led the way with 467 registrations, comfortably ahead of the Kia Sportage, Mazda CX-5 and Toyota RAV4.

Of the total of 15,498 registrations, 424 (2.7 percent) were pure electric vehicles. There were also 150 PHEVs and 855 hybrids sold during the month.

Toyota remains the overall market leader with a 15 percent market share, followed by Mitsubishi on 11 percent and Ford on nine percent.

Feebate 'best' route to lower exhaust emissions

Forget about banning gas guzzlers – convince motorists to buy low-emission vehicles, says the new car industry’s voice.

The lower a passenger vehicle’s emissions, the bigger the incentive, the MIA believes.

NEW vehicle importers have begun urging the Government to introduce a feebate scheme to accelerate the uptake of low-emission vehicles.

In a move obviously designed to see off any chance of an outright ban on importing vehicles fuelled by petrol or diesel, as has just been suggested by the Green Party, the Motor Industry Association, which presents new vehicle distributors, is pushing for new policies aimed at incentivising motorists to buy passenger models with the cleanest exhaust emissions – or none at all.

Chief executive David Crawford says members are strong supporters of having effective policies to encourage the reduction of carbon emissions from transport.

The way to do that is not to introduce policies aimed singularly at limiting vehicle supply. This would happen if the Government adopted the United Kingdom’s decision to ban pure petrol and diesel vehicles from as early as 2030. More preferable is to have policies that influence demand by incentivising the adoption of low technology technologies, Crawford says.

Such policies would be effective tools so long as they were implemented in a way that addressed the price premiums the low-emission vehicles have, he adds.

And the best way to achieve that is to introduce a feebate scheme that encourages car buyers to choose vehicles that are more efficient and less polluting, through rewarding those who do by giving them a rebate on the purchase price, funded by fees added to the price of less efficient vehicles.

“Because the distribution of new vehicles in New Zealand is a derived demand model, a well-designed feebate scheme incentivises change as it influences the purchase decision,” he says.

“This in turn alters the mix of models supplied by distributors which is more influenced by what is bought, and therefore restocked, rather than policies aimed singularly at limiting supply.

“Low emission technology is expensive, so policies that address low emission vehicle affordability are likely to be the most effective tools available to the Government.”

The previous Government proposed a ‘clean car initiative’, a ‘clean car standard’ (which would be a vehicle fuel-efficiency standard) and a ‘clean car discount’ (which would apply a rebate or penalty depending on exhaust emissions).

At the time, the MIA said it welcomed sensible discussions on ways to make vehicles cleaner and greener, and it promised the new car sector would work constructively with Government to help  create the best mix of policies to achieve that outcome.

The organisation didn’t like the ‘clean car standard’, because it implied that distributors had a significant influence on what vehicles Kiwi motorists chose to buy. It claimed that policies aimed at controlling supply into our market, imposed artificial controls that could distort the market.

But the MIA was particularly keen on the proposed ‘clean car discount’, as it would send a very clear signal to consumers and would over time increase demand for lower emitting vehicles. The MIA said that in its view it would be the most powerful policy available to the Government to influence car purchase decisions.

However, later in the year the whole ‘clean car initiative’ came to a screeching halt when the kybosh was put on the proposal by New Zealand First, a partner in the then coalition Government.

The MIA is asking for the ‘clean car discount’ to get picked up again by the new Labour Government, and as originally suggested it should apply to all light vehicles of less than 3500 kilograms gross vehicle mass.

Under the MIA’s proposed feebate scheme, vehicles with CO2 outputs of 230 grams per kilometre and above would pay a penalty, those with emissions of between 100-230 g/km would be in a “neutral” zone, those with emissions of between 50 and 100 g/km – which would be some hybrids and most PHEVs - would attract a low rebate, and those with CO2 outputs below 50 g/km would attract the highest level of rebate.

“If the Government were prepared to put say $10 million a year for several years into the feebate scheme, then the level of rebate for low emissions vehicles could be higher thereby significantly increasing the rate of uptake of low emission vehicles,” says Crawford.

He adds that the level at which a fee or rebate (and the size of the neutral zone) would need to be lowered with each successive year, so that over time these would become more challenging. If the Government agreed to contribute to the rebate fund this would also reduce over time.

MIA: Feebates to encourage efficient cars better than outright ban

We’re not well-placed to even consider following the UK’s ban on selling fossil-fuelled new cars from 2030, the new vehicle industry contends.

CONTENTION New Zealand should follow Britain’s lead and pursue a ban of sale of fossil-fuelled cars and vans from 2030 has alarmed new vehicle importers, whose representative body says that deadline is way too close.

David Crawford, chief of the Motor Industry Association, which represents factory-appointed distributors, says his organisation does not dispute that a ban on pure petrol and diesel vehicles might become necessary at some future point.

However, thought proposed by Greens co-leader and Climate Change Minister James Shaw that NZ needs adopt the same policy announced in the UK this week, and introduce a ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars in 10 years, has alarmed and, the MIA contends, is based on poor information.

“2035 is too soon let alone 2030. Readily available and affordable alternatives are not yet apparent with the priority given to the development of left-hand drive markets. 

“I believe that some of the premises underlying James Shaw’s comments about doing the same in NZ are ill-informed.”

Mr Crawford explains that the new vehicle market operates off a derived demand model, not a supply model.

“Change what customers buy and we will change over time what is supplied. Supplying items that sell is where companies aim to operate.”

The MIA remains a supporter of the feebate Clean Car Policy thwarted under the previous Labour government by its then coalition partner, NZ First.

The proposal to encourage car buyers to choose vehicles that are more efficient and less polluting, through rewarding those who choose more efficient models by giving them a rebate on the purchase price – this funded by fees added to the price of less efficient vehicles – remains unreconciled. 

Had it got through, from next year, the most efficient vehicles up to three years old would have conceivably cost up to $8000 less, while the least efficient would cost up to $3000 more. Older used imports (sold in New Zealand for the first time) were to attract a maximum rebate of $2600 or a $1500 fee. 

Mr Crawford offers that a feebate would be much more effective than a ban.

“Bans will create a lot of issues, resentment and perverse behaviour. People will hold onto their old vehicles for much longer.”  

The main issue facing the NZ market is affordability and access to a suitable range of makes and models that fit customer needs, he adds. 

Having crunched the numbers, the MIA was certain the rise in transport emissions was not coming from new vehicles. He said Mr Shaw’s reference to diesel utes, which are popular are do produce relatively high emissions,  with comment about NZ’s love affair with Ford Ranger – usually the country’s best-selling one-tonner and occasionally its best selling vehicle on monthly count – was “shallow.”

“The sales-weighted average emissions for the new vehicle fleet is reducing year on year … not fast enough but it is reducing.

“The rise in transport emissions in NZ has more to do with the increase in the rate of vehicle ownership.

“Over the last decade it has gone from being well less than 700 vehicles per every 1000 people to well over 800.”

This, he contended, is mostly due to “the flood of cheap old, used imported vehicles.  

“Address the rate of vehicle ownership and we begin to address overall transport emissions.”

In direct respect to the UK’s ban, he said there were risks for that country, particularly in its standing as primary market. There are few right-hand drive markets; Britain is presently well-considered by car makers but there was potential its importance could diminish with this.

General Motors’ pulling out of right-hand drive market for sedans and SUVs around the world this year was effectively the death of Holden, a popular brand here.

“The point in favour for the UK, versus Australasia, is their market size. Their market might be big enough for manufacturers to prioritise development for their market. It’s a big question mark, though. 

He believes manufacturers will struggle “big time” to meet the UK’s timeline.

However, one positive for NZ is if makers do put more effort into meeting that timeline, “then it might mean we get a wider range of right-hand models developed sooner than what would normally be the case.”

If that were to unfold, NZ would be better to adopt policies to “make us a fast follower. Feebates to address affordability is the best approach in our view.”